And then there were two! Either Ireland or France will be crowned 2023 Guinness Six Nations champions on Super Saturday.
Andy Farrell’s side are in the box seat, now four wins from four and one win away from the Grand Slam as they welcome England to the Aviva Stadium on St Patrick’s Day weekend.
A win and they will not need the calculators, but if they were to slip up, then France will be looking to pounce, with a home clash against Wales slightly earlier in the day on Super Saturday.
So what does each team need to win the Guinness Six Nations? Let us run through the permutations:
How do Ireland win?
The simplest part of the equation for Ireland is that a win will clinch the title and the Grand Slam.
In fact, provided they avoid defeat, they are guaranteed to finish top of the pile, with a current advantage of four points over Les Bleus.
That means that a draw, or even a defeat while earning two bonus points (four tries and within seven points), would both put them in an unassailable position.
There are still scenarios in which they can lose by picking up one, or no bonus points, but that would open the door for France.
Ireland will win if:
How can France pinch it?
For Les Bleus, who play before Ireland, the top priority will be a convincing win over Wales. If they can beat Warren Gatland’s side and earn a bonus point in the process, they will at least put a little pressure on Ireland.
Currently, France trail the world’s top side by 20 in points difference, so a win by 20 or more, while also picking up a bonus point, would leave Ireland needing at least two match points from the game.
There is an unlikely scenario where France could win without a bonus point and still take the title, but it would involve Ireland taking nothing against England and also losing a lot of ground in the points difference shake-up.
France will win if:
