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Crunching the numbers from the opening weekend

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The Autumn Nations Series began in blockbuster fashion on Saturday – and the numbers tell a story

England hosted New Zealand in a clash for the ages, while Scotland faced Pacific Nation Cup Champions Fiji in Edinburgh.

Here is a breakdown of some key stats, courtesy of our Insights Partner Sage, with their insights we can look at the tactical battles from the two matches that proved pivotal to the games’ outcomes.

England v New Zealand

The series opened with a thrilling showdown as New Zealand took on England at the newly named Allianz Stadium in Twickenham. The All Blacks ultimately clinched the victory, but England fought hard, nearly seizing the win in the closing moments, but George Ford’s penalty rattled the upright.

New Zealand led in the first half, but England pulled ahead shortly after half-time with Immanuel Feyi-Waboso's fourth try in four consecutive Tests, and his third in as many games against the All Blacks.

A penalty from Marcus Smith extended England’s lead to eight points with 20 minutes left, but when Smith and his halfback partner Ben Spencer were substituted in the 63rd minute, New Zealand capitalised on the change, scoring 10 unanswered points to secure the win.

While Spencer and Smith were on the field, England’s playstyle was expansive, moving the ball to width on 43% of phases and moving the ball beyond the first receiver on 25% of their attacking phases.

After their exit, these figures dropped, suggesting a more conservative strategy trying to close out the game in the last quarter that perhaps hindered England’s initial momentum and dominance.

Goal-kicking proved critical in this closely contested match, with just one missed attempt from the tee - a difficult late effort by George Ford. There were also three missed drop goal opportunities, two from Smith and one from Ford in the last moments of the game, however despite the missed kicks England exceeded their expected points from the tee scoring 17 points (16.9 expected).

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s accuracy in goal-kicking deserves praise, with 4-out-of-4 kicks successful with several difficult attempts. Their average kick difficulty was 58% including two from the touchline with less than a 50% predicted success rate (42% & 47%).

With a winning start, New Zealand now look ahead to their upcoming clash against world number one Ireland on Friday. England, on the other hand, will regroup as they prepare to welcome Australia on Saturday, where they’ll aim to finish stronger in the final quarter having learnt a harsh lesson against New Zealand.

Scotland v Fiji

At Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Scotland delivered a more straightforward performance, thrilling fans with their smooth attack rather than intense drama.

Scotland’s four tries in both the opening and closing 30 minutes showcased their dominance, while Fiji found strong momentum in two 10-minute periods around half-time, cutting the score gap from 29 points to 12 and sparking hopes for a comeback.

Ultimately, however, Scotland’s quality prevailed on both ends. Their defence proved formidable against Fiji, maintaining a 94% tackle success rate—a rare feat for teams facing Fiji, known for their ability to break tackles. In fact, Scotland is the only Tier 1 nation since 2011 to achieve such a rate twice against Fiji (also 94% in November 2022).

In attack, Scotland were equally effective, with nearly double the 22 entries as Fiji (14-8) and an average of 4.1 points per entry. They also achieved 30% more meters from fewer carries 966 meters from 126 carries compared to Fiji’s 740 meters from 138 carries.

The match also saw a tussle between Scotland’s wingers for the title of all-time top try-scorer. Darcy Graham’s four tries brought him level with Duhan van der Merwe on 28 Test tries, but van der Merwe reclaimed the lead with a late try of his own.