France are unbeaten across their previous seven men’s Test matches against Japan (W6 D1) – both sides have scored at least two tries in each of the previous seven meetings between Les Bleus and the Brave Blossoms.
Stade de France is something of a fortress for Les Bleus, although home fans will be trying to forget their most recent fixture there: the single-point World Cup quarter-final loss to the Springboks. In fact, Les Bleus haven’t lost by more than seven points at Stade de France since 2017 (18-38 v New Zealand).
Eddie Jones is back in Europe, though, which always invites plenty of media attention. How much progress has the former Wallabies and England head coach made with his team after taking the reins in controversial circumstances last year remains to be seen. They were losing finalists in the Pacific Nations Cup, and it's hard to read too much into the Autumn Nations Series warm-up match against the All Blacks in Tokyo last month.
While Japan have won just one of their last 11 matches away to European opposition (D1 L9) - that solitary victory coming against Portugal in November 2021 - Jones himself has a knack for overcoming Les Bleus, with eight wins in his 15 meetings with France. Tellingly, however, just one of those victories was on French soil, a 31-21 victory with England during their Grand Slam-winning Six Nations campaign in 2016.
France appear to be Autumn Nations Series specialists, winning nine of their last 10 November fixtures (excluding Guinness Men's Six Nations and Rugby World Cup matches), with their only defeat coming after extra-time in the Covid one-off Autumn Nations Cup final against England in 2020. Since then, France have won each of their six Autumn Nations Series matches.
The Dupont factor
It's the most anticipating comeback in Test rugby, and it's happening this weekend: Antoine Dupont will line up at scrum-half for France for the first time since Les Bleus' heartbreaking World Cup exit at the same venue in the 2023 World Cup. The most decorated player of the past year - domestic and European double, Olympic gold, Player of the Year, Legion d'Honneur (we could go on) - has taken no time at all to settle back into XVs rugby.
Metronomic boots
Japan have the highest place-kicking success rates of any men’s Tier 1 Test sides in 2024, (89.8% and 89.6% respectively), suggesting there will be little to separate them in this area.
The teams are in sharp contrast when it comes to other kicking metrics, though: France have gained the most kicking metres per game among men’s Tier 1 Test sides in 2024 (901), while Japan have averaged the fewest (599). The Brave Blossoms are also the only side yet to make a 50/22 kick this year.
Penaud at the ready
Damian Penaud is the reigning Player of the Series, an accolade he won in 2022. He has barely suffered a dip in form in the intervening seasons, So far in 2024, the winger has evaded 63% of the tackles he’s faced while playing for France, the highest rate among the 201 players from men’s Tier 1 nations to have faced at least 20 tackles this year. The 28-year-old scored two tries against Japan during that 2022 Autumn Nations Series, and has four in four games against the Brave Blossoms overall.
If there is a comparable danger man for Japan, it could be centre Dylan Riley. Of players from men’s Tier 1 nations, none have registered as many try involvements as Japan’s Dylan Riley in 2024 (9 – 6 tries, 3 assists), however, the South African-born centre has failed to score or assist a try in each of his previous three Tests against France.
France v Japan, Saturday 9th November, 20:10 GMT, Stade de France. Live on TNT Sports.
