Ellis Jenkins: England can slip up against Wales in Cardiff

It's hard to believe that a team that has had so much criticism of their coaching and selection are in with a shout (albeit a slim one) of winning the tournament on Saturday.

Before the Championship. I said this would be the game that Wales had the best chance of winning. That was an ambitious prediction, but France and Italy away at the start was always going to be tough. It's a different kettle of fish when you're playing in Cardiff. Playing in the Principality Stadium is special.

Welsh players are expected to be tough and gutsy – especially at home – and they’ll need all of that given how powerful England are. England have gone for a 6-2 split on the bench as well which points towards that being a big factor in the way they want to play. But if there's anything you'd back Wales to have on Saturday, it would be the physicality, grit and determination to just keep going and going.

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I think it's a slippery one for England. Wales are coming off the back of 16 losses but will be buoyed by the last two games, and there would be nothing more pleasurable for the Welsh boys than to end that losing streak by extinguishing any English hopes of winning the Championship before France even step on the field for the final game of Super Saturday.

Wales’ first half against Scotland was disappointing, but you can't have intent to play rugby without the risk of mistakes. If it was easy to play with intent and not make mistakes, then everyone would do it. When teams play a conservative game, it’s so they don’t make those errors, particularly in costly areas of the pitch. If Ben Thomas had his time again, he just lumps the ball down the field rather than going for the cross-field kick, and if Blair Murray had his time again, he probably just lets that kick go into touch.

Wales will need "physicality, grit and determination" at home on Saturday.

Not many tries are scored from inside your own half. There needs to be a balance struck between intent and risk, because we've got this fairytale idea of what running rugby is, but you have to ensure that when you do choose to run the ball that the odds are in your favour. Even France, who were so dominant against Ireland, caused themselves some problems from it, like when Damian Penaud inexplicably got caught in his own 22, or Louis Bielle-Biarrey’s sliced a cross-field kick 10 metres from his own try line. But they’re not on a record losing streak, and when you’re confident and winning, sometimes things just go your way.

Thoughts are turning to the British and Irish Lions selection at this point of the campaign. Warren Gatland said he could see Andy Farrell choosing four or five Welsh players.

I think he would be referring to Jac Morgan, Dewi Lake, Tomos Williams, Dafydd Jenkins and Taulupe Faletau. Jac is clearly the frontrunner from this Wales team: he’s been fantastic. The problem he’s got is that Andy Farrell could easily take any of the opensides from the four Home Nations. There are arguably five boys who could start in that seven jersey.

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In terms of a dark-horse selection from Wales, I think Blair Murray has been impressive at fullback. He's got a big left boot which coaches love and he makes good decisions. He’s also got plenty of gas and flair about him. You saw that last weekend when he set up one of the Six Nations' greatest ever disallowed tries.

For France to go with a 7-1 split against Ireland and then lose not just their scrum-half but the best player in the world in the first 30 minutes is a disaster for a coach. Maxime Lucu coming on did a great job, but it’s the ability of all of the French players to offload that sets them apart. With such athletic forwards, when they get their offloading game going, it's so hard to stop.

France have won three of the last four World Rugby U20 Championships, so it's not a coincidence that we're seeing a golden generation of players coming through and taking the senior team to new levels. They look like they're enjoying the way they play, and they’re dangerous doing it. In Europe, their leading clubs have been playing a different level to most other teams, and they seem to have translated that form into the Six Nations.

It would be a classically French thing to do, to go and lose to Scotland in Paris, but I can’t see it. If France play anything like they did against Ireland, they’ll blow Scotland away to win the title.