Both teams enter this contest with plenty to prove, making this encounter pivotal in the context of the Championship.
Head-to-head
In 37 encounters between the two teams, Scotland have prevailed 28 times, with Italy winning nine (including their maiden Six Nations victory a quarter of a century ago).
If the scales are tipped in Scotland’s favour on the historical front, it’s worth recalling that Italy ruined Scotland’s party in 2024. The Scots, high off the back of victories against Wales and England (and a narrow loss to France) had every right to think they could win in Rome.
Things didn’t work out that way. Italy, themselves buoyed by a draw with France that should arguably have been a victory for Quesada’s team, edged Scotland by a two-point margin before going on to beat Wales.
Never before have Italy gone back-to-back with wins against the Scots, while the hosts’ best run is a 13-match winning streak from 2015 to 2023.
This will be the third time Scotland has faced Italy in Round 1, after 2000 (lost 20-34) and 2019 (won 33-20).
Form Guide
Scotland will enter the match buoyed by their recent performances under head coach Gregor Townsend. Their autumn campaign featured impressive wins against Australia, Portugal and Fiji, with Finn Russell and Darcy Graham spearheading their attacking play.
The Scots have built a reputation for fast-paced rugby and robust defensive structures, making them a tough side to break down.
Meanwhile, Italy has made significant strides under Gonzalo Quesada, evident in the 2024 Guinness Men’s Six Nations, with historic victories over Scotland, Wales, and a draw against France.
Italy are unbeaten in their last three matches in the Guinness Men’s Six Nations (W2 D1), winning the last two in a row. That’s the Azzurri’s longest unbeaten streak in the Championship, while they have the opportunity to win three consecutive matches for the first time in their Six Nations history.
Team News
Euan Ferrie, Cameron Henderson, Ewan Johnson, Alexander Masibaka and Ollie Smith have all joined up with the squad.
Masibaka will replace Josh Bayliss in the squad, who sustained a groin injury playing for Bath in their victory over Sale Sharks. He will remain with Bath for further assessment to determine exact timescales.
Alexander Masibaka has been impressive this season in Pro D2 with the French side Soyaux-Angoulême. The 23-year-old is currently on loan from Montpellier having previously played for the Western Force. Born and raised in Western Australia, he plays across the back-row and qualifies for Scotland through his Paisley-born mother.
Stats dive
Scotland has won their opening match of the Guinness Men’s Six Nations in six of the last eight editions of the tournament, including the last four in a row, whereas Italy have won their opening game of the Guinness Men’s Six Nations in just three of their 25 campaigns, losing their last 11 in a row since beating France 23-18 in Round 1 in 2013; however, each of the Azzurri’s last two such defeats have come by five points or fewer (24-29 v France in 2023, 24-27 v England in 2024).
Scotland had the best goal-kicking success rate (96%) in the 2024 Guinness Men’s Six Nations, scoring 55 out of a possible 57 points from the boot, with talisman Finn Russell as their only kicker, however, the average goal kicker would have been expected to score just 48 points from the same attempts, their overperformance of seven points was the best of any side.
Italy will be cautious over the formidable Duhan van der Merwe as he was the joint-top try scorer in the 2024 Guinness Men’s Six Nations (5, joint with Dan Sheehan) and finished 2024 as the outright top try scorer for any men’s Tier 1 nation (9) in addition to ranking first for defenders beaten (48).
2024 Guinness Men’s Six Nations Player of the Championship Tommaso Menoncello made the most dominant tackles of any player from a men’s Tier 1 nation in 2024 (21) and won at least four more turnovers than any such back last year (10).
