A year on from finishing third in the Championship, Ioan Cunningham’s side have not been able to recreate that winning touch, slipping to an agonising opening loss to Scotland before three further defeats.
If they are to avoid bottom spot in the Guinness Women’s Six Nations, they need a bonus-point win in this one, while also overhauling either Italy or Ireland on points difference.
Le Azzurre come into the game off the back of a home defeat to Scotland of their own, paying the price for a five-minute spell in the second half during which the Scots scored two tries.
They have improved in attack since an opening loss to England though, averaging more than 17 points a game in the last three rounds.
Against a Wales team who have struggled to put points on the board, that ability to get over the whitewash may be crucial at Principality Stadium.
TEAM NEWS
After a 40-0 defeat at home to France, Cunningham has made a host of changes to his backline, while sticking to the same pack that was able to maintain possession and territory against Les Bleues.
Keira Bevan returns at scrum-half to partner Lleucu George, while Hannah Bluck comes into the midfield, meaning that Carys Cox shifts out to the wing. She is joined in the back three by Lisa Neumann and Jenny Hesketh at full-back.
Italy have also mixed things up in the backs, with Emma Stevanin given the fly-half jersey in place of Veronica Madia, who drops to the bench. Vittoria Ostuni Minuzzi moves to the wing, allowing Beatrice Capomaggi to start at full-back.
WHAT THEY SAID
Wales coach Ioan Cunningham: “Nobody needs to tell us how important this game is for us within the tournament, or for what follows, but our focus is totally on what we need to do as a team.
“We’re making history by playing the first stand-alone women’s Test match at the Principality Stadium and it’s a stage this squad of players have worked hard for and deserve. We know how important the home crowd has always been to our performances at home and this is no different.
“Our focus has been on what we need to do this week. We’re looking forward to the challenge and finishing the tournament on a high.”
Italy's Isabella Locatelli: “It will definitely not be an easy match, even if they conceded more points than people were predicting against France and Ireland. We saw in their first match against Scotland how they can play when they’re at their best.
“It shows that the level of sport is rising. It is good that we have this sort of situation because that is what sport is all about. It is great to see and shows a good level of competition.”
KEY BATTLE – Back three
Both sides have made changes in their back three, with Wales starting a completely new trio to the one that faced France, while Italy have moved things around to bring Beatrice Capomaggi in at full-back.
With Lleucu George’s kicking game, there will be pressure on Capomaggi at the back, and how she copes will be crucial for Le Azzurre.
Meanwhile, Wales have struggled to turn possession into points for much of this campaign, and with no Jaz Joyce, there will be greater responsibility on the new trio of Hesketh, Cox and Neumann to provide a cutting edge.
STAT ATTACK
Italy have lost just two of their last nine Guinness Women’s Six Nations matches against Wales (W6 D1) and have won each of their last five away games against them during that period.
Wales have lost all four of their games in this year’s Guinness Women’s Six Nations and could end a Championship with five losses for the first time ever should they lose to Italy.
Wales’ Alex Callender is the only player to have completed 60+ tackles in the 2024 Guinness Women’s Six Nations (65), while teammate Carys Cox has made 22 tackles without missing any, the most of any player to have maintained a100% success rate in this year’s Championship.
Italy’s Alyssa D’Inca has won at least three more turnovers than any other player in the 2024 Guinness Women’s Six Nations(7) while she’s averaged 15.6 metres per carry this year, the best rate of any player to run with the ball on 10+ occasions.
FANTASY WATCH
Wales have struggled for points so far this campaign, but they are always a threat from a rolling maul. With that in mind, Carys Phillips could be an interesting option at just 11.1 stars, particularly after Scotland hooker Lana Skeldon scored a try and was Player of the Match against Italy last weekend.
For Le Azzurre, Alyssa D’Inca remains a must-start player, adding another try against the Scots and showing that she can thrive at outside centre as well as on the wing. Even at 17.9 stars, she is worth the investment. For those after more of a bargain, Sara Seye has really stepped up this campaign and is averaging 14.5 points per game, a decent return for an affordable prop.
TEAMS
Wales: 15 Jenny Hesketh, 14 Lisa Neumann, 13 Hannah Jones (c), 12 Hannah Bluck, 11 Carys Cox, 10 Lleucu George, 9 Keira Bevan; 1 Gwenllian Pyrs, 2 Carys Phillips, 3 Sisilia Tuipulotu, 4 Natalia John, 5 Abbie Fleming, 6 Alisha Butchers, 7 Alex Callender, 8 Georgia Evans.
Replacements: 16 Kelsey Jones, 17 Abbey Constable, 18 Donna Rose, 19 Kate Williams, 20 Gwennan Hopkins, 21 Sian Jones, 22 Niamh Terry, 23 Nel Metcalfe.
Italy: 15 Beatrice Capomaggi, 14 Aura Muzzo, 13 Alyssa D'Incà, 12 Beatrice Rigoni, 11 Vittoria Ostuni Minuzzi, 10 Emma Stevanin, 9 Sofia Stefan, 1 Silvia Turani, 2 Vittoria Vecchini, 3 Sara Seye, 4 Sara Tounesi, 5 Giordana Duca, 6 Ilaria Arrighetti, 7 Francesca Sgorbini, 8 Elisa Giordano (c)
Replacements: 16 Laura Gurioli, 17 Gaia Maris, 18 Lucia Gai, 19 Valeria Fedrighi, 20 Isabella Locatelli, 21 Beatrice Veronese, 22 Veronica Madia, 23 Francesca Granzotto
